August 7, 2021
Market Update + Prediction
Welcome to another edition of the Artemis Real Estate newsletter! Spring is in the air and a sense of optimism is really picking up steam. Perhaps too much optimism, as it feels like we’re on the precipice of living through the “roaring 20’s”. Perhaps the Fed sees it the same way, as interest rates have edged upward in the past few weeks which indicates they may be trying to keep inflation in check and get out in front of a soon-to-be overheated market.
The pullback in tech / growth stocks is certainly influenced by this trend, as well as the rising bond yield, which ties directly back to Bay Area real estate. What will be interesting to witness is if the tech pullback will take some heat out of our local housing market, or if it will further fuel it as people rotate their money into other asset classes such as real estate. At this point it is anyone’s guess, but rest assured we are tracking this closely and made a prediction below. And as of this morning, tech stocks are seeing a nice rally.
In the meantime, we’re still seeing increased buyer activity on both sides of the Golden Gate Bridge at odds with a shortage of inventory. The froth in both markets is focused on above average and excellent listings, as certain home characteristics have emerged as non-negotiable in our post-COVID world. And for those particular listings, we’re seeing frenzied activity, even at the $20M+ price points (which is rare to see).
We just closed 211 West Street in Sausalito after receiving 4 offers (Artemis represented the seller). Our asking price was $3,095,000 and we ended up getting our client another $405,000, landing at $3,500,000. It is one of the highest price per square foot achievements in all of Sausalito at $1,505/ft. Our listing at 436 Gates in Bernal Heights is now closed, at 12% above list price. And you heard it here first – we are launching a very special listing in Mill Valley this week at 432 Lovell. This is one of Mill Valley’s most architecturally significant residences and will be listed at $9,988,000.
This is where we'll attempt to make a prediction about the future based on all the inputs we receive each month - whether it be boots-on-the-ground experience, roundtable discussions we're participating in, or the countless articles, podcasts, industry reports, and other media consumed. Read at your own risk!
The question of the day, it seems, is will the aforementioned pullback in tech stocks affect our heated housing market here in the Bay Area? Our prediction: very little if at all.
About a year ago, in this very newsletter, we predicted that the Bay Area and tech companies would be a big beneficiary of the pandemic. The pandemic served as an accelerant towards more tech-enabled (fill in the blank). Tech dominated during the past 12 months and now that an end (knock on wood) to the pandemic is visible, a healthy regression to the mean is inevitable and arguably needed in order to avoid dangerous bubble territory.
But the tech runup and subsequent correction is a far cry from the primal, visceral human need of optimizing where one lives. This need is ingrained in us and never in our lifetimes has that urge so prominently been the center of attention in so many peoples’ lives all at the exact same time. We expect the next 12-18 months to continue to be very active with people moving, period. Whether that means buying, selling, renting, relocating, whatever… people are in motion like never before. And as a result, the housing market will remain very active and the best homes will be hotly contested-for.
Click here to read the San Francisco market report.
Click here to read the North Bay market report.
If you or one of your friends, colleagues, or family members are among those looking to make a move, have them contact the team here at Artemis. We’re more than happy to help and will take excellent care of your referrals. Have a great month and see you next time!
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